Housing market dynamics under a pegged exchange rate – a study of Hong Kong
Abstract
This study explores the major determinants of prices and rents of properties in the mass housing market and in the luxury housing market of Hong Kong. The findings show that property price (and rental) dynamics are primarily driven by demand factors, rather than by housing supply. While macroeconomic factors and the provision of subsidized homeownership, to varying degrees, influence housing prices and/or rents, it is the result of U.S. monetary policy which has directly (through changes in money supply) and indirectly (through the wealth effect from a bullish stock market fuelled by unconventional monetary policy such as Quantitative Easing (QE) triggered the current affordability issue. Some policy implications with reference to recent U.S. monetary policy developments as well as to the Linked Exchange Rate System between Hong Kong Dollar and U.S. Dollar are then discussed.
Keyword : housing market dynamics, market fundamentals, stock market, assisted homeownership, housing supply, U.S. monetary policy
How to Cite
Yu, K. H., & Hui, E. C. M. (2018). Housing market dynamics under a pegged exchange rate – a study of Hong Kong. International Journal of Strategic Property Management, 22(2), 93-109. https://doi.org/10.3846/ijspm.2018.441
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.
References
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Brueckner, J. K. (1997). Consumption and investment motives and the portfolio choices of homeowners. Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, 15(2), 159-180. https://doi.org/10.1023/A:1007777532293
Buckley, R., & Ermisch, J. F. (1982). Theory and empiricism in the econometric modelling of house prices. Urban Studies, 20(1), 83-90. https://doi.org/10.1080/713703151
Case, B., Goetzmann, W., & Rouwenhorst, K. G. (1999). Global real estate markets – cycles and fundamentals. Working Paper, No. 7/99. Yale International Center for Finance.
Case, K. E., & Shiller, R. J. (1989). The efficiency of the market for single family homes. American Economic Review, 79(1), 125-137.
Cassidy, H. J., Dennis, B., & Yang, T. T. (2008). Home appreciation participation notes: a solution to housing affordability and the current mortgage crisis. International Real Estate Review, 11(2), 126-141.
Chen, M. C., Chang, C. O., Yang, C. Y., & Hsieh, B. M. (2012). Investment demand and housing prices in an emerging economy. Journal of Real Estate Research, 34(3), 345-373.
Chen, M. C., & Patel, K. (2002). An empirical analysis of determination of house prices in the Taipei area. Taiwan Economic Review, 30(4), 563-595. https://doi.org/10.6277/ter.2002.304.5
Chen, M. C., Tsai, I. C., & Chang, C. O. (2007). House prices and household income: do they move apart? Evidence from Taiwan. Habitat International, 31, 243-256. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.habitatint.2007.02.005
Ching, L. K., & Tyabji, A. (1991). Homeownership policy in Singapore: an assessment. Housing Studies, 6(1), 15-28. https://doi.org/10.1080/02673039108720694
Corsetti, G., Pesenti, P., & Roubini, N. (1999). What caused the Asian currency and financial crisis? Federal Reserve Bank of New York. Retrieved from https://www.newyorkfed.org/me-dialibrary/media/research/economists/pesenti/whatjapwor.pdf
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Drake, L. (1993). Modelling UK house prices using cointegration: an application of the Johansen technique. Applied Economics, 25, 1225-1228. https://doi.org/10.1080/00036849300000183
Elbourne, A. (2008). The U.K. housing market and the monetary policy transmission mechanism: an SVAR approach. Journal of Housing Economics, 17, 65-87. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhe.2007.09.002
Fama, E. F. (1990). Stock returns, expected returns, and real activity. Journal of Finance, 45(4), 1089-1108. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1540-6261.1990.tb02428.x
Forrest, R., & Murie, A. (1988). Selling the welfare state, the privatization of public housing. London: Routledge.
Forrest, R., Murie, A., & Williams, P. (1990). Homeownership: differentiation and fragmentation. London: Unwin Hyman.
Gagnon, J., Raskin, M., Remache, J., & Sack, B. (2011). Large-scale asset purchases by the Federal Reserve: did they work?. Economic Policy Review, 17(1), 41-59.
Garfinkel, M. R., & Thornton, D. L. (1989). The link between M1 and monetary base in the 1980s. Federal Reserve Bank of St Louis. Retrieved from https://research.stlouisfed.org/publica-tions/review/89/09/Link_Sep_Oct1989.pdf
Geske, R.; Roll, R. (1983). The fiscal and monetary linkage between stock returns and inflation. Journal of Finance, 28(1), 7-33. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1540-6261.1983.tb03623.x
Gibson, W. E. (1972). Interest rates and inflationary expectations: new evidence. American Economic Review, 62(5), 854-865.
Goodhart, C., & Hofmann, B. (2008). House prices, money, credit, and the macroeconomy. Oxford Review of Economic Policy, 24(1), 180-205. https://doi.org/10.1093/oxrep/grn009
Hamilton, J. D., & Wu, J. C. (2012). The effectiveness of alternative monetary policy tools in a zero lower bound environment. Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 44(1), 3-46.
Hays, R. (1994). Housing privatization: social goals and policy strategies. Journal of Urban Affairs, 16(4), 295-317. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-9906.1994.tb00332.x
Henderson, J. V., & Ioannides, Y. M. (1983). A model of housing tenure choice. American Economic Review, 73(1), 98-113.
Henderson, J. V., & Ioannides, Y. M. (1987). Ownership occupancy: investment vs consumption demand. Journal of Urban Economics, 21, 228-241. https://doi.org/10.1016/0094-1190(87)90016-7
Hoesli, M., Lizieri, C., & MacGregor, B. (2008). The inflation hedging characteristics of U.S. and U.K. investments: a multi-factor error correction approach. Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, 36, 183-206. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11146-007-9062-6
Hui, C. M., Yu, K. H., & Ho, K. H. (2009). Dynamics of assisted home ownership in Singapore dynamics of assisted home ownership in Singapore. Journal of Urban Affairs, 31(2), 197-215.
Hui, E. C. M., & Yiu, C. Y. (2003). Market dynamics of private residential real estate price – an empirical test in Hong Kong. Journal of Financial Management of Property and Construction, 8(3), 155-165.
Iacoviello, Y. M. (2005). House prices, borrowing constraints, and monetary policy in the business cycle. American Economic Review, 95(3), 739-764. https://doi.org/10.1257/0002828054201477
Ito, T., & Iwaisako, T. (1995). Explaining asset bubbles in Japan. Working Paper. International Monetary Fund.
Jin, Y., & Zeng, Z. (2004). Residential investment and house prices in a multi-sector monetary business cycle model. Journal of Housing Economics, 13, 268-286. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhe.2004.08.001
Joyce, M., Lasaosa, A., Stevens, I., & Tong, M. (2011). The financial market impact of quantitative easing in the United Kingdom. International Journal of Central Banking, 7(3), 113-161.
Kaul, G. (1987). Stock returns and inflation: the role of the monetary sector. Journal of Financial Economics, 18(2), 253-276. https://doi.org/10.1016/0304-405X(87)90041-9
Kim, K. H. (1993). Housing prices, affordability, and government policy in Korea. Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, 6, 55-71. https://doi.org/10.1007/BF01098428
La Grange, A., & Pretorius, F. (2000). Ontology, policy and the market: trends to home-ownership in Hong Kong. Urban Studies, 37(9), 1561-1582. https://doi.org/10.1080/00420980020080261
Lastrapes, W. D. (2002). The real price of housing and money supply shocks: time series evidence and theoretical simulations. Journal of Housing Economics, 11(1), 40-74. https://doi.org/10.1006/jhec.2002.0309
Lee, J. K. C. (1996). Homeownership, consumption and social divisions in Hong Kong: a theoretical and empirical note. In S. K. Lau (Ed.), New frontiers of social indicators research in Chinese societies (pp. 235–264). Hong Kong: Chinese University of Hong Kong Press.
Lee, S. H. (2003). The SARS epidemic in Hong Kong. Journal of Epidemiology and Community Health, 57, 652-654. https://doi.org/10.1136/jech.57.9.652
Lin, C. C., & Lin, S. J. (1999). An estimation of elasticities of consumption demand and investment demand for owner-occupied housing in Taiwan: a two-period model. Journal of Real Estate Review, 2(1), 110-125.
Ling, D., & Narnjo, A. (1995). An analysis of the linkages between macroeconomic events and commercial real estate returns. Proceeding of the RICS Property Research Conference, The Cutting Edge, Vol. 1, 281-304.
Linneman, P. (1986). An empirical test of the efficiency of the housing market. Journal of Urban Economics, 20, 140-154. https://doi.org/10.1016/0094-1190(86)90003-3
Lum, S. K. (1996). The Singapore private property market – price trends and affordability. Paper presented at the Conference on the Singapore Dream: private property, social expectations and public policy, 6 September 1996. National University of Singapore.
Maclennan, D., Muellbauer, J., & Stephens, M. (1998). Asymmetries in housing and financial market institutions and EMU. Oxford Review of Economic Policy, 14(3), 54-80. https://doi.org/10.1093/oxrep/14.3.54
Malpezzi, S. (1996). Housing prices, externalities, and regulation in U.S. metropolitan areas. Journal of Housing Research, 7(2), 209-241.
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