Urban housing prices and consumption structure upgrading: Different relationships in urban and rural China
Abstract
The dynamics of housing prices can play a pivotal role in shaping household behavior. Motivated by the limited research on the impact of housing prices on consumption structure upgrading in China, this paper presents a series of analyses that deploy panel data from 276 Chinese cities between 2005 and 2019 to scrutinize this impact. Firstly, fixed effect models were used to investigate the relationship between urban housing price and the consumption structure upgrading, and it was found that urban housing price has an inverted U-shaped effect on the consumption structure upgrading of Chinese urban residents, while it has an inhibitory effect on the consumption structure upgrading of Chinese rural residents. Then, we conducted multiple robustness tests, all of which corroborated the benchmark results’ reliability. Finally, deeper than existing research, the mechanism of the impact of urban housing prices on the consumption structure upgrading was further explored and it was found that increasing urban housing prices can affect consumption structure upgrading by affecting residents’ marginal propensity to consume in development and enjoyment. Our findings provide key alternatives for China’s government to promote residents’ consumption structure upgrading.
Keyword : housing prices, consumption structure upgrading, urban, rural, China
How to Cite
Ding, Y., Chin, L., & Taghizadeh-Hesary, F. (2024). Urban housing prices and consumption structure upgrading: Different relationships in urban and rural China. International Journal of Strategic Property Management, 28(5), 334–348. https://doi.org/10.3846/ijspm.2024.22449
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.
References
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Calcagno, R., Fornero, E., & Rossi, M. C. (2009). The effect of house prices on household consumption in Italy. Journal of Real Estate Finance & Economics, 39(3), 284–300. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11146-009-9187-x
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Ding, Y., Lee, C., & Lu, M. (2023b). Does market sentiment push up China’s housing prices? An empirical study based on the data of 45 mainstream cities in China. Journal of Housing and the Built Environment, 38, 1119–1147. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10901-022-09985-7
Dong, Z., Hui, E. C. M., & Jia, S. H. (2017). How does housing price affect consumption in China: Wealth effect or substitution effect? Cities, 64, 1–8. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cities.2017.01.006
Duca, J., Muellbauer, J., & Murphy, A. (2012). How financial innovations and accelerators drive booms and busts in U.S. consumption. Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
Edwards, J. R., & Lambert, L. S. (2007). Methods for integrating moderation and mediation: A general analytical framework using moderated path analysis. Psychological Methods, 12(1), 1–22. https://doi.org/10.1037/1082-989X.12.1.1
Fung, H. G., Huang, A. G., Liu, Q., & Shen, M. X. (2006). The development of the real estate industry in China. Chinese Economy, 39(1), 84–102. https://doi.org/10.2753/CES1097-1475390104
He, L., Zhao, J., Wang, J., Zheng, J., Zhang, Z., & Jiang, L. (2024). The influence of an urban hukou and its acquisition methods on older adults’ happiness: An analysis based on the Chinese General Social Survey. Current Psychology, 43, 21460–21475. https://doi.org/10.1007/s12144-024-05936-3
Hong, M., & Lou, L. (2022). Research on the impact of farmland transfer on rural household consumption: Evidence from Yunnan province, China. Land, 11(12), Article 2147. https://doi.org/10.3390/land11122147
Howard, D. H. (1978). Personal saving behavior and the rate of inflation. The Review of Economics and Statistics, 60(4), 547–554. https://doi.org/10.2307/1924247
Huang, Y., He, S., & Gan, L. (2021). Introduction to SI: Homeownership and housing divide in China. Cities, 108, Article 102967. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cities.2020.102967
Iacoviello, M., & Minetti, R. (2008). The credit channel of monetary policy: Evidence from the housing market. Journal of Macroeconomics, 30(1), 69–96. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jmacro.2006.12.001
Ji, X., & Shi, M. (2020). Population age structure, social security and household consumption rate. E3S Web of Conferences, 214, Article 01021. https://doi.org/10.1051/e3sconf/202021401021
Jin, J., & Zou, H. F. (2005). Fiscal decentralization, revenue and expenditure assignments, and growth in China. Journal of Asian Economics, 16(6), 1047–1064. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.asieco.2005.10.006
Kaplan, G., Mitman, K., & Violante, G. L. (2020). The housing boom and bust: Model meets evidence. Journal of Political Economy, 128(9), 3285–3345. https://doi.org/10.1086/708816
Katona, G. (1975). Psychological economics. Elsevier.
Lehrer, E., & Light, B. (2018). The effect of interest rates on consumption in an income fluctuation problem. Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 94, 63–71. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jedc.2018.07.004
Leonard, J. A. (2010). The impact of the housing market boom and bust on consumption spending. Business Economics, 45, 83–93. https://doi.org/10.1057/be.2010.11
Liang, L., Chen, M., & Lu, D. (2022). Revisiting the relationship between urbanization and economic development in China since the Reform and Opening-up. Chinese Geographical Science, 32, 1–15. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11769-022-1255-7
Liang, W., Lu, M., & Zhang, H. (2016). Housing prices raise wages: Estimating the unexpected effects of land supply regulation in China. Journal of Housing Economics, 33, 70–81. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhe.2016.07.002
Liang, W., & Yang, M. (2019). Urbanization, economic growth and environmental pollution: Evidence from China. Sustainable Computing: Informatics and Systems, 21, 1–9. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.suscom.2018.11.007
Lind, J. T., & Mehlum, H. (2010). With or without U? The appropriate test for a U-shaped relationship. Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 72(1), 109–118. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1468-0084.2009.00569.x
Liu, Z. (2012). Fiscal decentralization, rise of housing price and consumption repression. Finance & Economics, (2), 54–62. (in Chinese)
Lluch, C., & Williams, R. (1975). Consumer demand systems and aggregate consumption in the USA: An application of the extended linear expenditure system. Canadian Journal of Economics, 8(1), 49–66. https://doi.org/10.2307/134064
Louise, S. (1995). Housing prices and the savings of renters. Journal of Urban Economics, 38(1), 94–125. https://doi.org/10.1006/juec.1995.1024
Ouyang, Y. (2019). Fiscal decentralization and its influence on housing price - A case study in China [MSc thesis]. Columbia University.
Shiu, J. Y., Wei, G., & Chang, H. H. (2023). Impulse control during the online shopping frenzy in China: The role of consumer inertia. Humanities and Social Sciences Communications, 10, Article 667. https://doi.org/10.1057/s41599-023-02204-w
Suari-Andreu, E. (2021). Housing and household consumption: An investigation of the wealth and collateral effects. Journal of Housing Economics, 54, Article 101786. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhe.2021.101786
Tang, K., Xiong, Q., & Zhang, F. (2022). Can the E-commercialization improve residents’ income? – Evidence from “Taobao Counties” in China. International Review of Economics & Finance, 78, 540–553. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.iref.2021.12.019
Tang, Y., Chen, S., & Yuan, Z. (2020). The effects of hedonic, gain, and normative motives on sustainable consumption: Multiple mediating evidence from China. Sustainable Development, 28(4), 741–750. https://doi.org/10.1002/sd.2024
Torche, F., & Spilerman, S. (2009). Intergenerational influences of wealth in Mexico. Latin American Research Review, 44(3), 75–101. https://doi.org/10.1353/lar.0.0089
Uhrich, S., & Benkenstein, M. (2012). Physical and social atmospheric effects in hedonic service consumption: Customers’ roles at sporting events. The Service Industries Journal, 32(11), 1741–1757. https://doi.org/10.1080/02642069.2011.556190
Vinson, P. (2021). House prices and consumption in the United States. Real Estate Economics, 49(2), 635–662. https://doi.org/10.1111/1540-6229.12271
Wang, W., Liu, Y., & Peng, D. (2015). Research on effects of population aging on industrial upgrading. China Industrial Economics, (11), 47–61. https://doi.org/10.19581/j.cnki.ciejournal.2015.11.004 (in Chinese)
Wang, Z., & Yang, L. (2014). Indirect carbon emissions in household consumption: Evidence from the urban and rural area in China. Journal of Cleaner Production, 78, 94–103. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jclepro.2014.04.041
Wang, Z., & Zhang, Q. (2014). Fundamentals factors in the housing markets of China. Journal of Housing Economics, 25, 53–61. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhe.2014.04.001
Wertenbroch, K. (2002). Hedonic interactions between choice and consumption. Advances in Consumer Research, 29, 105–107.
Wong, W. L., Law, S. H., Said, R., & Lee, C. (2015). Consumption and housing wealth: A Malaysian case that demonstrates a negative relationship. International Journal of Economics and Management, 9(S), 163–180.
Yang, Z., Fan, Y., & Zhao, L. (2018). A reexamination of housing price and household consumption in China: The dual role of housing consumption and housing investment. Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, 56(3), 472–499. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11146-017-9648-6
Yin, S. (2011). On optimizing consumption structure and transforming economic development mode. Consumer Economics, 27(1), 3–9. (in Chinese)
Yu, J., Shi, X., & Cheong, T. S. (2021). Distribution dynamics of China’s household consumption upgrading. Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, 58, 193–203. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.strueco.2021.05.012
Yuan, F., Wei, Y. D., & Xiao, W. (2019). Land marketization, fiscal decentralization, and the dynamics of urban land prices in transitional China. Land Use Policy, 89, Article 104208. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.landusepol.2019.104208
Zhang, X., Luo, W., & Zhu, J. (2021). Top-down and bottom-up lockdown: Evidence from COVID-19 prevention and control in China. Journal of Chinese Political Science, 26, 189–211. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11366-020-09711-6
Zhou, Z., Zhang, T., Wen, K., Zeng, H., & Chen, X. (2018). Carbon risk, cost of debt financing and the moderation effect of media attention: Evidence from Chinese companies operating in high-carbon industries. Business Strategy and the Environment, 27(8), 1131–1144. https://doi.org/10.1002/bse.2056
Arellano, M., & Bond, S. R. (1991). Some tests of specification for panel data: Monte Carlo evidence and an application to employment equations. Review of Economic Studies, 58(2), 277–297. https://doi.org/10.2307/2297968
Atalay, K., & Edwards, R. (2022). House prices, housing wealth and financial well-being. Journal of Urban Economics, 129, Article 103438. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jue.2022.103438
Attanasio, O. P., Blow, L., Hamilton, R., & Leicester, A. (2009). Booms and busts: Consumption, house prices and expectations. Economica, 76(301), 20–50. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1468-0335.2008.00708.x
Baron, R. M., & Kenny, D. A. (1986). The moderator-mediator variable distinction in social psychological research: Conceptual, strategic, and statistical considerations. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 51(6), 1173–1182. https://doi.org/10.1037/0022-3514.51.6.1173
Benjamin, J., Chinloy, P., & Jud, D. G. (2004). Real estate versus financial wealth in consumption. Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, 29(3), 341–354. https://doi.org/10.1023/B:REAL.0000036677.42950.98
Boone, L., & Girouard, N. (2002). The stock market, the housing market and consumer behavior. OECD Economic Studies, (2), 175–200. https://doi.org/10.1787/eco_studies-v2002-art12-en
Bostic, R., Gabriel, S., & Painter, G. (2009). Housing wealth, financial wealth, and consumption: New evidence from micro data. Regional Science & Urban Economics, 39(1), 79–89. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.regsciurbeco.2008.06.002
Calcagno, R., Fornero, E., & Rossi, M. C. (2009). The effect of house prices on household consumption in Italy. Journal of Real Estate Finance & Economics, 39(3), 284–300. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11146-009-9187-x
Campbell, J. Y., & Cocco, J. (2007). How do house prices affect consumption? Evidence from micro data. Journal of Monetary Economics, 54(3), 591–621. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jmoneco.2005.10.016
Cao, G., Li, K., Wang, R., & Liu, T. (2017). Consumption structure of migrant worker families in China. China & World Economy, 25(4), 1–21. https://doi.org/10.1111/cwe.12203
Chai, J. C. H. (1992). Consumption and living standards in China. The China Quarterly, 131, 721–749. https://doi.org/10.1017/S0305741000046348
Chao, C. C., Laffargue, J. P., & Yu, E. (2011). The Chinese saving puzzle and the life-cycle hypothesis: A revaluation. China Economic Review, 22(1), 108–120. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.chieco.2010.09.004
Chen, J., Guo, F., & Zhang, W. (2010). How important are wealth effects on China’s consumer spending? Chinese Economy, 43(2), 5–22. https://doi.org/10.2753/CES1097-1475430201
Cheng, C. (2013). A study of dynamic econometric relationship between urbanization and service industries growth in China. Journal of Industrial Engineering and Management, 6(1), 8–15. https://doi.org/10.3926/jiem.657
Chin, L., & Li, X. (2021). House prices and bank credit in China: Analysis of first-and second-tier cities. International Journal of Housing Markets and Analysis, 14(4), 779–795. https://doi.org/10.1108/IJHMA-05-2020-0061
China National Bureau of Statistics (2022). National data. https://data.stats.gov.cn/easyquery.htm?cn=C01
Dai, Z. (2019). Housing price and upgrading of consumption structure of urban residents in China. Modern Economy, 10(1), 156–174. https://doi.org/10.4236/me.2019.101011
Ding, Y., Chin, L., Li, F., Deng, P., & Cong, S. (2023a). How do housing prices affect a city’s innovation capacity? The case of China. Technological and Economic Development of Economy, 29(5), 1382–1404. https://doi.org/10.3846/tede.2023.18899
Ding, Y., Lee, C., & Lu, M. (2023b). Does market sentiment push up China’s housing prices? An empirical study based on the data of 45 mainstream cities in China. Journal of Housing and the Built Environment, 38, 1119–1147. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10901-022-09985-7
Dong, Z., Hui, E. C. M., & Jia, S. H. (2017). How does housing price affect consumption in China: Wealth effect or substitution effect? Cities, 64, 1–8. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cities.2017.01.006
Duca, J., Muellbauer, J., & Murphy, A. (2012). How financial innovations and accelerators drive booms and busts in U.S. consumption. Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
Edwards, J. R., & Lambert, L. S. (2007). Methods for integrating moderation and mediation: A general analytical framework using moderated path analysis. Psychological Methods, 12(1), 1–22. https://doi.org/10.1037/1082-989X.12.1.1
Fung, H. G., Huang, A. G., Liu, Q., & Shen, M. X. (2006). The development of the real estate industry in China. Chinese Economy, 39(1), 84–102. https://doi.org/10.2753/CES1097-1475390104
He, L., Zhao, J., Wang, J., Zheng, J., Zhang, Z., & Jiang, L. (2024). The influence of an urban hukou and its acquisition methods on older adults’ happiness: An analysis based on the Chinese General Social Survey. Current Psychology, 43, 21460–21475. https://doi.org/10.1007/s12144-024-05936-3
Hong, M., & Lou, L. (2022). Research on the impact of farmland transfer on rural household consumption: Evidence from Yunnan province, China. Land, 11(12), Article 2147. https://doi.org/10.3390/land11122147
Howard, D. H. (1978). Personal saving behavior and the rate of inflation. The Review of Economics and Statistics, 60(4), 547–554. https://doi.org/10.2307/1924247
Huang, Y., He, S., & Gan, L. (2021). Introduction to SI: Homeownership and housing divide in China. Cities, 108, Article 102967. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cities.2020.102967
Iacoviello, M., & Minetti, R. (2008). The credit channel of monetary policy: Evidence from the housing market. Journal of Macroeconomics, 30(1), 69–96. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jmacro.2006.12.001
Ji, X., & Shi, M. (2020). Population age structure, social security and household consumption rate. E3S Web of Conferences, 214, Article 01021. https://doi.org/10.1051/e3sconf/202021401021
Jin, J., & Zou, H. F. (2005). Fiscal decentralization, revenue and expenditure assignments, and growth in China. Journal of Asian Economics, 16(6), 1047–1064. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.asieco.2005.10.006
Kaplan, G., Mitman, K., & Violante, G. L. (2020). The housing boom and bust: Model meets evidence. Journal of Political Economy, 128(9), 3285–3345. https://doi.org/10.1086/708816
Katona, G. (1975). Psychological economics. Elsevier.
Lehrer, E., & Light, B. (2018). The effect of interest rates on consumption in an income fluctuation problem. Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 94, 63–71. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jedc.2018.07.004
Leonard, J. A. (2010). The impact of the housing market boom and bust on consumption spending. Business Economics, 45, 83–93. https://doi.org/10.1057/be.2010.11
Liang, L., Chen, M., & Lu, D. (2022). Revisiting the relationship between urbanization and economic development in China since the Reform and Opening-up. Chinese Geographical Science, 32, 1–15. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11769-022-1255-7
Liang, W., Lu, M., & Zhang, H. (2016). Housing prices raise wages: Estimating the unexpected effects of land supply regulation in China. Journal of Housing Economics, 33, 70–81. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhe.2016.07.002
Liang, W., & Yang, M. (2019). Urbanization, economic growth and environmental pollution: Evidence from China. Sustainable Computing: Informatics and Systems, 21, 1–9. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.suscom.2018.11.007
Lind, J. T., & Mehlum, H. (2010). With or without U? The appropriate test for a U-shaped relationship. Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 72(1), 109–118. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1468-0084.2009.00569.x
Liu, Z. (2012). Fiscal decentralization, rise of housing price and consumption repression. Finance & Economics, (2), 54–62. (in Chinese)
Lluch, C., & Williams, R. (1975). Consumer demand systems and aggregate consumption in the USA: An application of the extended linear expenditure system. Canadian Journal of Economics, 8(1), 49–66. https://doi.org/10.2307/134064
Louise, S. (1995). Housing prices and the savings of renters. Journal of Urban Economics, 38(1), 94–125. https://doi.org/10.1006/juec.1995.1024
Ouyang, Y. (2019). Fiscal decentralization and its influence on housing price - A case study in China [MSc thesis]. Columbia University.
Shiu, J. Y., Wei, G., & Chang, H. H. (2023). Impulse control during the online shopping frenzy in China: The role of consumer inertia. Humanities and Social Sciences Communications, 10, Article 667. https://doi.org/10.1057/s41599-023-02204-w
Suari-Andreu, E. (2021). Housing and household consumption: An investigation of the wealth and collateral effects. Journal of Housing Economics, 54, Article 101786. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhe.2021.101786
Tang, K., Xiong, Q., & Zhang, F. (2022). Can the E-commercialization improve residents’ income? – Evidence from “Taobao Counties” in China. International Review of Economics & Finance, 78, 540–553. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.iref.2021.12.019
Tang, Y., Chen, S., & Yuan, Z. (2020). The effects of hedonic, gain, and normative motives on sustainable consumption: Multiple mediating evidence from China. Sustainable Development, 28(4), 741–750. https://doi.org/10.1002/sd.2024
Torche, F., & Spilerman, S. (2009). Intergenerational influences of wealth in Mexico. Latin American Research Review, 44(3), 75–101. https://doi.org/10.1353/lar.0.0089
Uhrich, S., & Benkenstein, M. (2012). Physical and social atmospheric effects in hedonic service consumption: Customers’ roles at sporting events. The Service Industries Journal, 32(11), 1741–1757. https://doi.org/10.1080/02642069.2011.556190
Vinson, P. (2021). House prices and consumption in the United States. Real Estate Economics, 49(2), 635–662. https://doi.org/10.1111/1540-6229.12271
Wang, W., Liu, Y., & Peng, D. (2015). Research on effects of population aging on industrial upgrading. China Industrial Economics, (11), 47–61. https://doi.org/10.19581/j.cnki.ciejournal.2015.11.004 (in Chinese)
Wang, Z., & Yang, L. (2014). Indirect carbon emissions in household consumption: Evidence from the urban and rural area in China. Journal of Cleaner Production, 78, 94–103. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jclepro.2014.04.041
Wang, Z., & Zhang, Q. (2014). Fundamentals factors in the housing markets of China. Journal of Housing Economics, 25, 53–61. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhe.2014.04.001
Wertenbroch, K. (2002). Hedonic interactions between choice and consumption. Advances in Consumer Research, 29, 105–107.
Wong, W. L., Law, S. H., Said, R., & Lee, C. (2015). Consumption and housing wealth: A Malaysian case that demonstrates a negative relationship. International Journal of Economics and Management, 9(S), 163–180.
Yang, Z., Fan, Y., & Zhao, L. (2018). A reexamination of housing price and household consumption in China: The dual role of housing consumption and housing investment. Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, 56(3), 472–499. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11146-017-9648-6
Yin, S. (2011). On optimizing consumption structure and transforming economic development mode. Consumer Economics, 27(1), 3–9. (in Chinese)
Yu, J., Shi, X., & Cheong, T. S. (2021). Distribution dynamics of China’s household consumption upgrading. Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, 58, 193–203. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.strueco.2021.05.012
Yuan, F., Wei, Y. D., & Xiao, W. (2019). Land marketization, fiscal decentralization, and the dynamics of urban land prices in transitional China. Land Use Policy, 89, Article 104208. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.landusepol.2019.104208
Zhang, X., Luo, W., & Zhu, J. (2021). Top-down and bottom-up lockdown: Evidence from COVID-19 prevention and control in China. Journal of Chinese Political Science, 26, 189–211. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11366-020-09711-6
Zhou, Z., Zhang, T., Wen, K., Zeng, H., & Chen, X. (2018). Carbon risk, cost of debt financing and the moderation effect of media attention: Evidence from Chinese companies operating in high-carbon industries. Business Strategy and the Environment, 27(8), 1131–1144. https://doi.org/10.1002/bse.2056