Nonlinear relationship between housing supply and house price in Malaysia
Abstract
The novelty of this paper is to ascertain a nonlinear relationship between housing supply and house price. This study is conducted based on panel dataset of four different types of houses in Malaysia from 2002Q3 through 2016Q4. Although housing supply has been theoretically assumed to be positively and linearly related to house price, we observed that the number of new houses build in Malaysia has declined despite the increasing house prices. Hence, we posit that housing supply and house price are nonlinearly related. The results from pooled mean group estimation show the existence of inverted U-shaped housing supply curve. The threshold level of house price index is found at 186.92 where the effect of house price on housing starts will become negative after this point. We also find that the marginal effects of house price evaluated at the minimum and maximum levels are positive and negative, respectively, and statistically significant. This paper suggests that the squared term of house price should be included in estimating housing supply in Malaysia. The evidence of inverted U-shaped housing supply curve in Malaysia shows that housing authorities have taken steps to overcome the challenges of oversupply by reducing the approvals for housing development projects.
First published online 23 July 2020
Keyword : housing supply, house price, pooled mean group, nonlinear, Malaysia
How to Cite
Yeap, G. P., & Lean, H. H. (2020). Nonlinear relationship between housing supply and house price in Malaysia. International Journal of Strategic Property Management, 24(5), 313-322. https://doi.org/10.3846/ijspm.2020.12343
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.
References
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Bangura, M., & Lee, C. L. (2019). House price diffusion of housing submarkets in Greater Sydney. Housing Studies, 1–32. https://doi.org/10.1080/02673037.2019.1648772
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Brambor, T., Clark, W. R., & Golder, M. (2006). Understanding interaction models: improving empirical analyses. Political Analysis, 14(1), 63–82. https://doi.org/10.1093/pan/mpi014
Bulan, L., Mayer, C., & Somerville, C. T. (2009). Irreversible investment, real options, and competition: evidence from real estate development. Journal of Urban Economics, 65(3), 237–251. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jue.2008.03.003
Caldera, A., & Johansson, Å. (2013). The price responsiveness of housing supply in OECD countries. Journal of Housing Economics, 22(3), 231–249. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhe.2013.05.002
DiPasquale, D., & Wheaton, W. C. (1994). Housing market dynamics and the future of housing prices. Journal of Urban Economics, 35, 1–27. https://doi.org/10.1006/juec.1994.1001
Gitelman, E., & Otto, G. (2012). Supply elasticity estimates for the Sydney housing market. Australian Economic Review, 45(2), 176–190. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-8462.2012.00679.x
Glaeser, E. L., & Gyourko, J. (2005). Urban decline and durable housing. Journal of Political Economy, 113(2), 345–375. https://doi.org/10.1086/427465
Glaeser, E. L., Gyourko, J., & Saiz, A. (2008). Housing supply and housing bubbles. Journal of Urban Economics, 64, 198–217. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jue.2008.07.007
Glaeser, E., & Gyourko, J. (2018). The economic implications of housing supply. Journal of Economic Perspectives, 32(1), 3–30. https://doi.org/10.1257/jep.32.1.3
Grimes, A., & Aitken, A. (2010). Housing supply, land costs and price adjustment. Real Estate Economics, 38(2), 325–353. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1540-6229.2010.00269.x
Green, R. K., Malpezzi, S., & Mayo, S. K. (2005). Metropolitanspecific estimates of the price elasticity of supply of housing, and their sources. American Economic Review, 95(2), 334– 339. https://doi.org/10.1257/000282805774670077
Hausman, J. A. (1978). Specification tests in econometrics. Econometrica, 46(6), 1251–1271. https://doi.org/10.2307/1913827
Holly, S., & Jones, N. (1997). House prices since the 1940s: cointegration, demography and asymmetries. Economic Modelling, 14(4), 549–565. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0264-9993(97)00009-6
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Johansen, S. (1988). Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors. Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 12(2–3), 231–254. https://doi.org/10.1016/0165-1889(88)90041-3
Kao, C. (1999). Spurious regression and residual-based tests for cointegration in panel data. Journal of Econometrics, 90(1), 1–44. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0304-4076(98)00023-2
Lee, C. L, & Jin, X. H. (2011). Exploring Australian housing supply volatility. Pacific Rim Property Research Journal, 17(4), 634–651. https://doi.org/10.1080/14445921.2011.11104346
Lee, C. L. (2014). The inflation-hedging characteristics of Malaysian residential property. International Journal of Housing Markets and Analysis, 7(1), 61–75. https://doi.org/10.1108/IJHMA-10-2012-0053
Lee, C. L., & Reed, R. (2014). Volatility decomposition of Australian housing prices. Journal of Housing Research, 23(1), 21–43.
Leishman, C. (2015). Housing supply and suppliers: are the microeconomics of housing developers important? Housing Studies, 30(4), 580–600. https://doi.org/10.1080/02673037.2015.1021767
Levin, A., Lin, C. F., & Chu, C. S. J. (2002). Unit root tests in panel data: asymptotic and finite-sample properties. Journal of Econometrics, 108(1), 1–24. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0304-4076(01)00098-7
Ma, L., Liu, C., & Reed, R. (2017). The impacts of residential construction and property prices on residential construction outputs: an inter-market equilibrium approach. International Journal of Strategic Property Management, 21(3), 296–306. https://doi.org/10.3846/1648715X.2016.1255675
Maddala, G. S., & Wu, S. (1999). A comparative study of unit root tests with panel data and a new simple test. Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 61(S1), 631–652. https://doi.org/10.1111/1468-0084.0610s1631
Malpezzi, S., & Maclennan, D. (2001). The long-run price elasticity of supply of new residential construction in the United States and the United Kingdom. Journal of Housing Economics, 10(3), 278–306. https://doi.org/10.1006/jhec.2001.0288
Malpezzi, S., & Mayo, S. K. (1997). Getting housing incentives right: a case study of the effects of regulation, taxes and subsidies on housing supply in Malaysia. Land Economics, 73(3), 372–391. https://doi.org/10.2307/3147174
Mayo, S., & Sheppard, S. (2001). Housing supply and the effects of stochastic development control. Journal of Housing Economics, 10(2), 109–128. https://doi.org/10.1006/jhec.2001.0283
Mayer, C. J., & Somerville, C. T. (2000a). Residential construction: using the urban growth model to estimate housing supply. Journal of Urban Economics, 48, 85–109. https://doi.org/10.1006/juec.1999.2158
Mayer, C. J., & Somerville, C. T. (2000b). Land use regulation and new construction. Regional Science and Urban Economics, 30, 639–662. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0166-0462(00)00055-7
Mayo, S., & Sheppard, S. (1996). Housing supply under rapid economic growth and varying regulatory stringency: an international comparison. Journal of Housing Economics, 5(3), 274–289. https://doi.org/10.1006/jhec.1996.0014
McLaughlin, R. B. (2011). New housing supply elasticity in Australia: a comparison of dwelling types. The Annals of Regional Science, 48(2), 595–618. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00168-011-0491-z
Meen, G. (2000). Housing cycles and efficiency. Scottish Journal of Political Economy, 47(2), 114–140. https://doi.org/10.1111/1467-9485.00156
Meen, G. (2005). On the economics of the Barker Review of housing supply. Housing Studies, 20(6), 949–971. https://doi.org/10.1080/02673030500291082
Miles, W. (2009). Irreversibility, uncertainty and housing investment. Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, 38(2), 173–182. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11146-007-9087-x
Neto, M. S. (2005). Analysis of the determinants of new housing investment in Spain. Housing, Theory and Society, 22(1), 18–31. https://doi.org/10.1080/14036090510032718
Oikarinen, E., Peltola, R., & Valtonen, E. (2015). Regional variation in the elasticity of supply of housing, and its determinants: the case of a small sparsely populated country. Regional Science and Urban Economics, 50, 18–30. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.regsciurbeco.2014.10.004
Ooi, J. T. L., & Le, T. T. T. (2012). New supply and price dynamics in the Singapore housing market. Urban Studies, 49(7), 1435–1451. https://doi.org/10.1177/0042098011415718
Pedroni, P. (1999). Critical values for cointegration tests in heterogeneous panels with multiple regressors. Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 61(S1), 653–670. https://doi.org/10.1111/1468-0084.61.s1.14
Pedroni, P. (2004). Panel cointegration: asymptotic and finite sample properties of pooled time series tests with an application to the PPP hypothesis. Econometric Theory, 20(3), 597–625. https://doi.org/10.1017/S0266466604203073
Pesaran, M. H., & Smith, R. (1995). Estimating long-run relationships from dynamic heterogeneous panels. Journal of Econometrics, 68(1), 79–113. https://doi.org/10.1016/0304-4076(94)01644-F
Pesaran, M. H., Shin, Y., & Smith, R. P. (1999). Pooled mean group estimation of dynamic heterogeneous panels. Journal of the American Statistical Association, 94(446), 621–634. https://doi.org/10.1080/01621459.1999.10474156
Poterba, J. M. (1984). Tax subsidies to owner-occupied housing: an asset-market approach. Quarterly Journal of Economics, 99(4), 729–752. https://doi.org/10.2307/1883123
Pryce, G. (1999). Construction elasticities and land availability: a two-stage least-squares model of housing supply using the variable elasticity approach. Urban Studies, 36(13), 2283–2304. https://doi.org/10.1080/0042098992421
Rangel, G. J., Ng, J. W. J., Murugasu, T. T., & Poon, W. C. (2019). Measuring Malaysian housing affordability: the lifetime income approach. International Journal of Housing Markets and Analysis, 12(5), 966–984. https://doi.org/10.1108/IJHMA-02-2019-0023
Stevenson, S., & Young, J. (2014). A multiple error-correction model of housing supply. Housing Studies, 29(3), 362–379. https://doi.org/10.1080/02673037.2013.803040
Tan, T. H. (2010). The effects of housing characteristics on neighbourhood stability of homeownership. International Journal of Business and Emerging Markets, 2(3), 286–304. https://doi.org/10.1504/IJBEM.2010.033380
Tan, T. H. (2011). Sustainability and housing provision in Malaysia. Journal of Strategic Innovation and Sustainability, 7(1), 62–71.
Teck‐Hong, T. (2011). Neighborhood preferences of house buyers: the case of Klang Valley, Malaysia. International Journal of Housing Markets and Analysis, 4(1), 58–69. https://doi.org/10.1108/17538271111111839
Tan, T. H. (2012). Housing satisfaction in medium-and high-cost housing: the case of Greater Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia. Habitat International, 36(1), 108–116. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.habitatint.2011.06.003
Taltavull de La Paz, P., & Gabrielli, L. (2015). Housing supply and price reactions: a comparison approach to Spanish and Italian markets. Housing Studies, 30(7), 1036–1063. https://doi.org/10.1080/02673037.2015.1006183
Tse, R. Y., Ho, C. W., & Ganesan, S. (1999). Matching housing supply and demand: an empirical study of Hong Kong’s market. Construction Management & Economics, 17(5), 625–633. https://doi.org/10.1080/014461999371231
Valuation and Property Services Department (JPPH). (2012). Malaysia Property Market Report 2012. Putrajaya.
Valuation and Property Services Department (JPPH). (2015). Malaysia Property Market Report 2015. Putrajaya.
Wigren, R., & Wilhelmsson, M. (2007). Housing stock and price adjustments in 12 West European countries between 1976 and 1999. Housing, Theory and Society, 24(2), 133–154. https://doi.org/10.1080/14036090601119589
Weng, Y., & Gong, P. (2017). On price co-movement and volatility spillover effects in China’s housing markets. International Journal of Strategic Property Management, 21(3), 240–255. https://doi.org/10.3846/1648715X.2016.1271369
Al-Masum, M. A., & Lee, C. L. (2019). Modelling housing prices and market fundamentals: evidence from the Sydney housing market. International Journal of Housing Markets and Analysis, 12(4), 746–762. https://doi.org/10.1108/IJHMA-10-2018-0082
Ball, M., Meen, G., & Nygaard, C. (2010). Housing supply price elasticities revisited: evidence from international, national, local and company data. Journal of Housing Economics, 19, 255–268. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhe.2010.09.004
Bangura, M., & Lee, C. L. (2019). House price diffusion of housing submarkets in Greater Sydney. Housing Studies, 1–32. https://doi.org/10.1080/02673037.2019.1648772
Barot, B., & Yang, Z. (2002). House prices and housing investment in Sweden and the UK: econometric analysis for the period 1970–1998. Review of Urban & Regional Development Studies, 14(2), 189–216. https://doi.org/10.1111/1467-940X.00054
Blackley, D. M. (1999). The long-run elasticity of new housing supply in the United States: empirical evidence for 1950 to 1994. The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, 18(1), 25–42. https://doi.org/10.1023/A:1007781228328
Brambor, T., Clark, W. R., & Golder, M. (2006). Understanding interaction models: improving empirical analyses. Political Analysis, 14(1), 63–82. https://doi.org/10.1093/pan/mpi014
Bulan, L., Mayer, C., & Somerville, C. T. (2009). Irreversible investment, real options, and competition: evidence from real estate development. Journal of Urban Economics, 65(3), 237–251. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jue.2008.03.003
Caldera, A., & Johansson, Å. (2013). The price responsiveness of housing supply in OECD countries. Journal of Housing Economics, 22(3), 231–249. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhe.2013.05.002
DiPasquale, D., & Wheaton, W. C. (1994). Housing market dynamics and the future of housing prices. Journal of Urban Economics, 35, 1–27. https://doi.org/10.1006/juec.1994.1001
Gitelman, E., & Otto, G. (2012). Supply elasticity estimates for the Sydney housing market. Australian Economic Review, 45(2), 176–190. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-8462.2012.00679.x
Glaeser, E. L., & Gyourko, J. (2005). Urban decline and durable housing. Journal of Political Economy, 113(2), 345–375. https://doi.org/10.1086/427465
Glaeser, E. L., Gyourko, J., & Saiz, A. (2008). Housing supply and housing bubbles. Journal of Urban Economics, 64, 198–217. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jue.2008.07.007
Glaeser, E., & Gyourko, J. (2018). The economic implications of housing supply. Journal of Economic Perspectives, 32(1), 3–30. https://doi.org/10.1257/jep.32.1.3
Grimes, A., & Aitken, A. (2010). Housing supply, land costs and price adjustment. Real Estate Economics, 38(2), 325–353. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1540-6229.2010.00269.x
Green, R. K., Malpezzi, S., & Mayo, S. K. (2005). Metropolitanspecific estimates of the price elasticity of supply of housing, and their sources. American Economic Review, 95(2), 334– 339. https://doi.org/10.1257/000282805774670077
Hausman, J. A. (1978). Specification tests in econometrics. Econometrica, 46(6), 1251–1271. https://doi.org/10.2307/1913827
Holly, S., & Jones, N. (1997). House prices since the 1940s: cointegration, demography and asymmetries. Economic Modelling, 14(4), 549–565. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0264-9993(97)00009-6
Im, K. S., Pesaran, M. H., & Shin, Y. (2003). Testing for unit roots in heterogeneous panels. Journal of Econometrics, 115(1), 53–74. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0304-4076(03)00092-7
Johansen, S. (1988). Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors. Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 12(2–3), 231–254. https://doi.org/10.1016/0165-1889(88)90041-3
Kao, C. (1999). Spurious regression and residual-based tests for cointegration in panel data. Journal of Econometrics, 90(1), 1–44. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0304-4076(98)00023-2
Lee, C. L, & Jin, X. H. (2011). Exploring Australian housing supply volatility. Pacific Rim Property Research Journal, 17(4), 634–651. https://doi.org/10.1080/14445921.2011.11104346
Lee, C. L. (2014). The inflation-hedging characteristics of Malaysian residential property. International Journal of Housing Markets and Analysis, 7(1), 61–75. https://doi.org/10.1108/IJHMA-10-2012-0053
Lee, C. L., & Reed, R. (2014). Volatility decomposition of Australian housing prices. Journal of Housing Research, 23(1), 21–43.
Leishman, C. (2015). Housing supply and suppliers: are the microeconomics of housing developers important? Housing Studies, 30(4), 580–600. https://doi.org/10.1080/02673037.2015.1021767
Levin, A., Lin, C. F., & Chu, C. S. J. (2002). Unit root tests in panel data: asymptotic and finite-sample properties. Journal of Econometrics, 108(1), 1–24. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0304-4076(01)00098-7
Ma, L., Liu, C., & Reed, R. (2017). The impacts of residential construction and property prices on residential construction outputs: an inter-market equilibrium approach. International Journal of Strategic Property Management, 21(3), 296–306. https://doi.org/10.3846/1648715X.2016.1255675
Maddala, G. S., & Wu, S. (1999). A comparative study of unit root tests with panel data and a new simple test. Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 61(S1), 631–652. https://doi.org/10.1111/1468-0084.0610s1631
Malpezzi, S., & Maclennan, D. (2001). The long-run price elasticity of supply of new residential construction in the United States and the United Kingdom. Journal of Housing Economics, 10(3), 278–306. https://doi.org/10.1006/jhec.2001.0288
Malpezzi, S., & Mayo, S. K. (1997). Getting housing incentives right: a case study of the effects of regulation, taxes and subsidies on housing supply in Malaysia. Land Economics, 73(3), 372–391. https://doi.org/10.2307/3147174
Mayo, S., & Sheppard, S. (2001). Housing supply and the effects of stochastic development control. Journal of Housing Economics, 10(2), 109–128. https://doi.org/10.1006/jhec.2001.0283
Mayer, C. J., & Somerville, C. T. (2000a). Residential construction: using the urban growth model to estimate housing supply. Journal of Urban Economics, 48, 85–109. https://doi.org/10.1006/juec.1999.2158
Mayer, C. J., & Somerville, C. T. (2000b). Land use regulation and new construction. Regional Science and Urban Economics, 30, 639–662. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0166-0462(00)00055-7
Mayo, S., & Sheppard, S. (1996). Housing supply under rapid economic growth and varying regulatory stringency: an international comparison. Journal of Housing Economics, 5(3), 274–289. https://doi.org/10.1006/jhec.1996.0014
McLaughlin, R. B. (2011). New housing supply elasticity in Australia: a comparison of dwelling types. The Annals of Regional Science, 48(2), 595–618. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00168-011-0491-z
Meen, G. (2000). Housing cycles and efficiency. Scottish Journal of Political Economy, 47(2), 114–140. https://doi.org/10.1111/1467-9485.00156
Meen, G. (2005). On the economics of the Barker Review of housing supply. Housing Studies, 20(6), 949–971. https://doi.org/10.1080/02673030500291082
Miles, W. (2009). Irreversibility, uncertainty and housing investment. Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, 38(2), 173–182. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11146-007-9087-x
Neto, M. S. (2005). Analysis of the determinants of new housing investment in Spain. Housing, Theory and Society, 22(1), 18–31. https://doi.org/10.1080/14036090510032718
Oikarinen, E., Peltola, R., & Valtonen, E. (2015). Regional variation in the elasticity of supply of housing, and its determinants: the case of a small sparsely populated country. Regional Science and Urban Economics, 50, 18–30. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.regsciurbeco.2014.10.004
Ooi, J. T. L., & Le, T. T. T. (2012). New supply and price dynamics in the Singapore housing market. Urban Studies, 49(7), 1435–1451. https://doi.org/10.1177/0042098011415718
Pedroni, P. (1999). Critical values for cointegration tests in heterogeneous panels with multiple regressors. Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 61(S1), 653–670. https://doi.org/10.1111/1468-0084.61.s1.14
Pedroni, P. (2004). Panel cointegration: asymptotic and finite sample properties of pooled time series tests with an application to the PPP hypothesis. Econometric Theory, 20(3), 597–625. https://doi.org/10.1017/S0266466604203073
Pesaran, M. H., & Smith, R. (1995). Estimating long-run relationships from dynamic heterogeneous panels. Journal of Econometrics, 68(1), 79–113. https://doi.org/10.1016/0304-4076(94)01644-F
Pesaran, M. H., Shin, Y., & Smith, R. P. (1999). Pooled mean group estimation of dynamic heterogeneous panels. Journal of the American Statistical Association, 94(446), 621–634. https://doi.org/10.1080/01621459.1999.10474156
Poterba, J. M. (1984). Tax subsidies to owner-occupied housing: an asset-market approach. Quarterly Journal of Economics, 99(4), 729–752. https://doi.org/10.2307/1883123
Pryce, G. (1999). Construction elasticities and land availability: a two-stage least-squares model of housing supply using the variable elasticity approach. Urban Studies, 36(13), 2283–2304. https://doi.org/10.1080/0042098992421
Rangel, G. J., Ng, J. W. J., Murugasu, T. T., & Poon, W. C. (2019). Measuring Malaysian housing affordability: the lifetime income approach. International Journal of Housing Markets and Analysis, 12(5), 966–984. https://doi.org/10.1108/IJHMA-02-2019-0023
Stevenson, S., & Young, J. (2014). A multiple error-correction model of housing supply. Housing Studies, 29(3), 362–379. https://doi.org/10.1080/02673037.2013.803040
Tan, T. H. (2010). The effects of housing characteristics on neighbourhood stability of homeownership. International Journal of Business and Emerging Markets, 2(3), 286–304. https://doi.org/10.1504/IJBEM.2010.033380
Tan, T. H. (2011). Sustainability and housing provision in Malaysia. Journal of Strategic Innovation and Sustainability, 7(1), 62–71.
Teck‐Hong, T. (2011). Neighborhood preferences of house buyers: the case of Klang Valley, Malaysia. International Journal of Housing Markets and Analysis, 4(1), 58–69. https://doi.org/10.1108/17538271111111839
Tan, T. H. (2012). Housing satisfaction in medium-and high-cost housing: the case of Greater Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia. Habitat International, 36(1), 108–116. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.habitatint.2011.06.003
Taltavull de La Paz, P., & Gabrielli, L. (2015). Housing supply and price reactions: a comparison approach to Spanish and Italian markets. Housing Studies, 30(7), 1036–1063. https://doi.org/10.1080/02673037.2015.1006183
Tse, R. Y., Ho, C. W., & Ganesan, S. (1999). Matching housing supply and demand: an empirical study of Hong Kong’s market. Construction Management & Economics, 17(5), 625–633. https://doi.org/10.1080/014461999371231
Valuation and Property Services Department (JPPH). (2012). Malaysia Property Market Report 2012. Putrajaya.
Valuation and Property Services Department (JPPH). (2015). Malaysia Property Market Report 2015. Putrajaya.
Wigren, R., & Wilhelmsson, M. (2007). Housing stock and price adjustments in 12 West European countries between 1976 and 1999. Housing, Theory and Society, 24(2), 133–154. https://doi.org/10.1080/14036090601119589
Weng, Y., & Gong, P. (2017). On price co-movement and volatility spillover effects in China’s housing markets. International Journal of Strategic Property Management, 21(3), 240–255. https://doi.org/10.3846/1648715X.2016.1271369