Islamic stock market and sukuk market development, economic growth, and trade openness (the case of Indonesia and Malaysia)
Abstract
This study was conducted in order to analyse the two-way relationship between the Islamic stock market and sukuk market development, and economic growth. this study also analyses whether trade openness influences the development of the Islamic stock market and sukuk market, and economic growth. VAR (Vector Auto Regressive), VECM (Vector Error Correction Model), and a Granger Causality Test used to test the hypothesis. Using Indonesia and Malaysia as the sample countries and from February 2008 to December 2017 period, the results showed that there is a bi-directional causality between the development of the Islamic stock market and the development of the sukuk market in Indonesia and Malaysia. There is a bi-directional causality between the development of the Islamic stock market and sukuk market with economic growth in Indonesia. Unidirectional causality is found between economic growth and the sukuk market development in Malaysia. And no causality (neutrality) is reported between the development of the Islamic stock market and economic growth in Malaysia. Meanwhile, trade openness has a significant and positive effect on the sukuk market development as well as economic growth in Malaysia. For the limitations, this research only focused on two countries and only delved into the corporation sukuk market.
Keyword : Islamic stock market, Sukuk, economic growth, trade openness, VECM
How to Cite
Muharam, H., Anwar, R. J., & Robiyanto, R. (2019). Islamic stock market and sukuk market development, economic growth, and trade openness (the case of Indonesia and Malaysia). Business: Theory and Practice, 20, 196-207. https://doi.org/10.3846/btp.2019.19
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.
References
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Baur DG, Lucey BM (2009) Flights and contagion – An empirical analysis of stock–bond correlations. Journal of Financial Stability 5(4): 339–352. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jfs.2008.08.001
Bhattacharyay BN (2013) Determinants of bond market development in Asia. Journal of Asian Economics 24: 124–137. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.asieco.2012.11.002
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Engle RF, Granger CWJ (1987) Co-Integration and error correction: Representation, estimation, and testing. Econometrica 55(2): 251–276. https://doi.org/10.2307/1913236
Enisan AA, Olufisayo AO (2009) Stock market development and economic growth: Evidence from seven sub-Sahara African countries. Journal of Economics and Business 61(2): 162–171. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jeconbus.2008.05.001
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Ho S-Y, Iyke BN (2017) On the causal links between the stock market and the economy of Hong Kong. Contemporary Economics 11(3): 343–362.
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IFSB (2017) Islamic Financial Services Industry Report 2017. Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia: Islamic Financial Services Board.
Istiqomah (2012) Dinamika Interaksi antara Variabel Moneter dan Pasar Modal Syariah Terhadap Pertumbuhan Ekonomi Indonesia. Working Paper.
Johansen S, Juselius K (1990) Maximum likelihood estimation and inference on cointegration – with applications to the demand for money. Oxford Bulletin Economis and Statistics 52(2): 169–210. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1468-0084.1990.mp52002003.x
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Luintela KB, Khan M (1999) A quantitative reassessment of the finance–growth nexus: evidence from a multivariate VAR. Journal of Development Economics 60(2): 381–405. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0304-3878(99)00045-0
Marques LM, Fuinhas JA, Marques AC (2013) Does the stock market cause economic growth? Portuguese evidence of economic regime change. Economic Modelling 32: 316–324. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econmod.2013.02.015
Mohamed MR (2018) Malaysian Bond & Sukuk Market: An Overview. Paper presented at the Showcasing Asian Bond Markets: Opportunities And Risks, An ACRAA Conference In Cooperation With Asian Bankers Association, Manama, Bahrain. http://acraa.com/doc/5%20Malaysia%20Bond%20Market.pdf
Mohd NHH, Low S-W, Nor AHSM, Ghazali NA (2013) FDI and economic growth – does the quality of banking development matter? Gadjah Mada International Journal of Business 15 (3): 287-303. https://doi.org/10.22146/gamaijb.5472
Muharam H, Setyowati D (2017) Kausalitas Perkembangan Pasar Saham, Perkembangan Pasar Obligasi, Pertumbuhan Ekonomi, dan Investasi Langsung Asing. Working Paper.
Mustafa NNS, Samsudin S, Shahadan F, Yi AKJ (2015) Flight-to-quality between stock and bond markets: pre and post global financial crisis. Procedia Economics and Finance 31: 846–855. https://doi.org/10.1016/S2212-5671(15)01178-8
Naifar N, Hammoudeh S, Al dohaiman MS (2016) Dependence structure between sukuk (Islamic bonds) and stock market conditions: An empirical analysis with Archimedean copulas. Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money 44: 148–165. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.intfin.2016.05.003
Newbery DMG, Stiglitz JE (1984) Pareto inferior trade. The Review of Economic Studies 51(1): 1–12. https://doi.org/10.2307/2297701
Ngare E, Nyamongo EM, Misati RN (2014) Stock market development and economic growth in Africa. Journal of Economics and Business 74: 24–39. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jeconbus.2014.03.002
Olweny TO, Kimani D (2011) Stock market performance and economic growth: Empirical evidence from Kenya using causality test approach Advances in Management & Applied Economics 1 (3): 153-196.
Patoda R, Jain K (2012) Assimilation between Bond and Stock Market. Global Journal of Management and Business Research 12 (20).
Pradhan RP, Arvin MB, Hall JH, Bahmani S (2014) Causal nexus between economic growth, banking sector development, stock market development, and other macroeconomic variables: The case of ASEAN countries. Review of Financial Economics 23(4): 155–173. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rfe.2014.07.002
Pradhan RP, Zaki DB, Maradana RP, Dash S, Jayakumar M, Chatterjee D (2015) Bond market development and economic growth: The G-20 experience. Tékhne 13(1): 51–65. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0304-405X(03)00125-9
Robinson J (1952) The generalization of the General Theory, in the Rate of interest and other essays. London: Macmillan.
Robiyanto R (2017) The Analysis of capital market integration in ASEAN Region by using the OGARCH approach. Jurnal Keuangan dan Perbankan 21(2): 169–175. https://doi.org/10.26905/jkdp.v21i2.1138
Robiyanto R (2018a) Gold VS Bond: What Is the safe haven for the Indonesian and Malaysian capital market? Gadjah Mada International Journal of Business 20 (3): 277-302. https://doi.org/10.22146/gamaijb.27775
Robiyanto R (2018b) Indonesian stock market’s dynamic integration with Asian stock markets and world stock markets. Jurnal Pengurusan 52: 181–192.
Robiyanto R (2018c) Testing of the Gold’s role as a safe haven and hedge for Sharia stocks in Indonesia. Al-Iqtishad: Jurnal Ilmu Ekonomi Syariah 10(2): 255–266. https://doi.org/10.15408/aiq.v10i2.6527
Robiyanto R, Ernayani R (2018) Capital market integration in some ASEAN countries revisited. Jurnal Manajemen 22(2): 205–222. https://doi.org/10.24912/jm.v22i2.359
Robiyanto R, Wahyudi S, Pangestuti IRD (2017a) Testing commodities as safe haven and hedging instrument on ASEAN’s five stock markets. Jurnal Ekonomi Kuantitatif Terapan 10(2): 231–238. https://doi.org/10.24843/JEKT.2017.v10.i02.p11
Robiyanto R, Wahyudi S, Pangestuti IRD (2017b) The volatility–variability hypotheses testing and hedging effectiveness of precious metals for the Indonesian and Malaysian capital markets. Gadjah Mada International Journal of Business 19(2): 167–192. https://doi.org/10.22146/gamaijb.26260
Romer PM (1990) Endogenous technological chan. Journal of Political Economy 98 (5): S71-S102. https://doi.org/10.1086/261725
Said A, Grassa R (2013) The determinants of Sukuk market development: Does macroeconomic factors influence the construction of certain structure of Sukuk? Journal of Applied Finance & Banking 3 (5): 251-267.
Schumpeter JA (1912) The theory of economic development. Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press.
Smaoui H, Nechi S (2017) Does sukuk market development spur economic growth? Research in International Business and Finance 41: 136-147. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ribaf.2017.04.018
Suganda TR, Sumargo IK, Robiyanto R (2018) Superstitious behavior and stock returns: The case of Javanese traditional calendar. Kasetsart Journal of Social Sciences (Article in Press). https://doi.org/10.1016/j.kjss.2018.08.008
Svaleryd H, Vlachos J (2002) Markets for risk and openness to trade: how are they related? Journal of International Economics 57 (2): 369-395. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0022-1996(01)00153-2
Vazakidis A, Adamopoulos A (2009) Financial development and economic growth: An empirical analysis for Greece. American Journal of Applied Sciences 6(7): 1410–1417. https://doi.org/10.3844/ajassp.2009.1410.1417
Wahyudi S, Nofendi D, Robiyanto R, Hersugondo H (2018) Factors affecting return on deposit (ROD) of sharia banks in Indonesia. Business: Theory and Practice 19: 166–176. https://doi.org/10.3846/btp.2018.17
Wang YS, Chueh YL (2013) Dynamic transmission effects between the interest rate, the US dollar, and gold and crude oil prices. Economic Modelling 30: 792–798. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econmod.2012.09.052
Wanyama DW (2017) Effect of stock market development on the growth of corporate bond market in Kenya. International Journal of Finance (IJF) 2 (2).
World Bank Indicators (2018) http://www.worldbank.org/?CID=ECR_GA_worldbank_EN_EXTP_AM2018&gclid=EAIaIQobChMIsJv2_6GL3gIVCK6WCh0HfgGVEAAYASAAEgIHGvD_BwE
Yartey CA (2007) Well-developed financial intermediary sector promotes stock market development: Evidence from Africa. Journal of Emerging Market Finance 6(3): 269–289. https://doi.org/10.1177/097265270700600303
Alam N, Hassan MK, Haque MA (2013) Are Islamic bonds different from conventional bonds? International evidence from capital market tests. Borsa Istanbul Review 13(3): 22–29. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.bir.2013.10.006
Aloui C, Hammoudeh S, Hamida HB (2015) Co-movement between sharia stocks and sukuk in the GCC markets: A time-frequency analysis. Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money 34: 69–79. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.intfin.2014.11.003
Atje R, Jovanovic B (1993) Stock markets and development. European Economic Review 37(2-3): 632–640. https://doi.org/10.1016/0014-2921(93)90053-D
Baele L, Bekaert G, Inghelbrecht K (2010) The determinants of stock and bond return comovements. Review of Financial Studies 23(6): 2374–2428. https://doi.org/10.1093/rfs/hhq014
Bansal N, Connolly RA, Stivers C (2014) The stock-bond return relation, the term structure’s slope, and asset-class risk dynamics. Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis 49(03): 699–724. https://doi.org/10.1017/S0022109014000258
Baur DG, Lucey BM (2009) Flights and contagion – An empirical analysis of stock–bond correlations. Journal of Financial Stability 5(4): 339–352. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jfs.2008.08.001
Bhattacharyay BN (2013) Determinants of bond market development in Asia. Journal of Asian Economics 24: 124–137. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.asieco.2012.11.002
Bhide A (1993) The hidden costs of stock market liquidity. Journal of Financial Economics 34(1): 31–51. https://doi.org/10.1016/0304-405X(93)90039-E
Bordo MD, Murshid AP (2001) Are financial crises becoming more contagious?: What is the historical evidence on contagion? In: CS and FKJ (Eds) International financial contagion. Boston, MA: Springer. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-1-4757-3314-3_14
Braun M, Raddatz C (2005) Trade liberalization and the politics of financial development. In: World Bank Policy Research Working Papers 3517. https://doi.org/10.1596/1813-9450-3517
Chiang TC, Li J, Yang S-Y (2014) Dynamic stock–bond return correlations and financial market uncertainty. Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting 45(1): 59–88. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11156-013-0430-4
Dickey DA, Fuller WA (1979) Distribution of the estimators for autoregressive time series with a unit root. Journal of the American Statistical Association 71(366): 427–431. https://doi.org/10.2307/2286348
Durand RB, Junker M, Szimayer A (2009) The flight-to-quality effect: a copula-based analysis. Accounting & Finance 50(2): 281–299. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-629X.2009.00320.x
El-Wassal KA (2016) Understanding the growth in emerging stock markets. Journal of Emerging Market Finance 4(3): 227–261. https://doi.org/10.1177/097265270500400302
Engle RF, Granger CWJ (1987) Co-Integration and error correction: Representation, estimation, and testing. Econometrica 55(2): 251–276. https://doi.org/10.2307/1913236
Enisan AA, Olufisayo AO (2009) Stock market development and economic growth: Evidence from seven sub-Sahara African countries. Journal of Economics and Business 61(2): 162–171. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jeconbus.2008.05.001
Granger CWJ (1969) Investigating causal relations by econometric models and cross-spectral methods. Econometrica 37(3): 424–438. https://doi.org/10.2307/1912791
Grossman GM, Helpman E (1994) Endogenous Innovation in the Theory of Growth. The Journal of Economic Perspectives 8(1): 23–44. https://doi.org/10.1257/jep.8.1.23
Guler B, Ozlale U (2005) Is there a flight to quality due to inflation uncertainty? Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications 345 (3-4): 603-607. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0378-4371(04)01060-X
Handriani E, Robiyanto R (2018) Investment opportunity and industrial growth in Indonesia. International Journal of Business and Society 19(2): 295–312.
Ho S-Y, Iyke BN (2017) On the causal links between the stock market and the economy of Hong Kong. Contemporary Economics 11(3): 343–362.
ICD (2017) Islamic Finance Development Indicator Report 2017. Thomson Reuters.
IFSB (2017) Islamic Financial Services Industry Report 2017. Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia: Islamic Financial Services Board.
Istiqomah (2012) Dinamika Interaksi antara Variabel Moneter dan Pasar Modal Syariah Terhadap Pertumbuhan Ekonomi Indonesia. Working Paper.
Johansen S, Juselius K (1990) Maximum likelihood estimation and inference on cointegration – with applications to the demand for money. Oxford Bulletin Economis and Statistics 52(2): 169–210. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1468-0084.1990.mp52002003.x
Levine R (1997) Financial development and economic growth: Views and agenda. Journal of Economic Literature 35(2): 688–726.
Luintela KB, Khan M (1999) A quantitative reassessment of the finance–growth nexus: evidence from a multivariate VAR. Journal of Development Economics 60(2): 381–405. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0304-3878(99)00045-0
Marques LM, Fuinhas JA, Marques AC (2013) Does the stock market cause economic growth? Portuguese evidence of economic regime change. Economic Modelling 32: 316–324. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econmod.2013.02.015
Mohamed MR (2018) Malaysian Bond & Sukuk Market: An Overview. Paper presented at the Showcasing Asian Bond Markets: Opportunities And Risks, An ACRAA Conference In Cooperation With Asian Bankers Association, Manama, Bahrain. http://acraa.com/doc/5%20Malaysia%20Bond%20Market.pdf
Mohd NHH, Low S-W, Nor AHSM, Ghazali NA (2013) FDI and economic growth – does the quality of banking development matter? Gadjah Mada International Journal of Business 15 (3): 287-303. https://doi.org/10.22146/gamaijb.5472
Muharam H, Setyowati D (2017) Kausalitas Perkembangan Pasar Saham, Perkembangan Pasar Obligasi, Pertumbuhan Ekonomi, dan Investasi Langsung Asing. Working Paper.
Mustafa NNS, Samsudin S, Shahadan F, Yi AKJ (2015) Flight-to-quality between stock and bond markets: pre and post global financial crisis. Procedia Economics and Finance 31: 846–855. https://doi.org/10.1016/S2212-5671(15)01178-8
Naifar N, Hammoudeh S, Al dohaiman MS (2016) Dependence structure between sukuk (Islamic bonds) and stock market conditions: An empirical analysis with Archimedean copulas. Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money 44: 148–165. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.intfin.2016.05.003
Newbery DMG, Stiglitz JE (1984) Pareto inferior trade. The Review of Economic Studies 51(1): 1–12. https://doi.org/10.2307/2297701
Ngare E, Nyamongo EM, Misati RN (2014) Stock market development and economic growth in Africa. Journal of Economics and Business 74: 24–39. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jeconbus.2014.03.002
Olweny TO, Kimani D (2011) Stock market performance and economic growth: Empirical evidence from Kenya using causality test approach Advances in Management & Applied Economics 1 (3): 153-196.
Patoda R, Jain K (2012) Assimilation between Bond and Stock Market. Global Journal of Management and Business Research 12 (20).
Pradhan RP, Arvin MB, Hall JH, Bahmani S (2014) Causal nexus between economic growth, banking sector development, stock market development, and other macroeconomic variables: The case of ASEAN countries. Review of Financial Economics 23(4): 155–173. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rfe.2014.07.002
Pradhan RP, Zaki DB, Maradana RP, Dash S, Jayakumar M, Chatterjee D (2015) Bond market development and economic growth: The G-20 experience. Tékhne 13(1): 51–65. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0304-405X(03)00125-9
Robinson J (1952) The generalization of the General Theory, in the Rate of interest and other essays. London: Macmillan.
Robiyanto R (2017) The Analysis of capital market integration in ASEAN Region by using the OGARCH approach. Jurnal Keuangan dan Perbankan 21(2): 169–175. https://doi.org/10.26905/jkdp.v21i2.1138
Robiyanto R (2018a) Gold VS Bond: What Is the safe haven for the Indonesian and Malaysian capital market? Gadjah Mada International Journal of Business 20 (3): 277-302. https://doi.org/10.22146/gamaijb.27775
Robiyanto R (2018b) Indonesian stock market’s dynamic integration with Asian stock markets and world stock markets. Jurnal Pengurusan 52: 181–192.
Robiyanto R (2018c) Testing of the Gold’s role as a safe haven and hedge for Sharia stocks in Indonesia. Al-Iqtishad: Jurnal Ilmu Ekonomi Syariah 10(2): 255–266. https://doi.org/10.15408/aiq.v10i2.6527
Robiyanto R, Ernayani R (2018) Capital market integration in some ASEAN countries revisited. Jurnal Manajemen 22(2): 205–222. https://doi.org/10.24912/jm.v22i2.359
Robiyanto R, Wahyudi S, Pangestuti IRD (2017a) Testing commodities as safe haven and hedging instrument on ASEAN’s five stock markets. Jurnal Ekonomi Kuantitatif Terapan 10(2): 231–238. https://doi.org/10.24843/JEKT.2017.v10.i02.p11
Robiyanto R, Wahyudi S, Pangestuti IRD (2017b) The volatility–variability hypotheses testing and hedging effectiveness of precious metals for the Indonesian and Malaysian capital markets. Gadjah Mada International Journal of Business 19(2): 167–192. https://doi.org/10.22146/gamaijb.26260
Romer PM (1990) Endogenous technological chan. Journal of Political Economy 98 (5): S71-S102. https://doi.org/10.1086/261725
Said A, Grassa R (2013) The determinants of Sukuk market development: Does macroeconomic factors influence the construction of certain structure of Sukuk? Journal of Applied Finance & Banking 3 (5): 251-267.
Schumpeter JA (1912) The theory of economic development. Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press.
Smaoui H, Nechi S (2017) Does sukuk market development spur economic growth? Research in International Business and Finance 41: 136-147. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ribaf.2017.04.018
Suganda TR, Sumargo IK, Robiyanto R (2018) Superstitious behavior and stock returns: The case of Javanese traditional calendar. Kasetsart Journal of Social Sciences (Article in Press). https://doi.org/10.1016/j.kjss.2018.08.008
Svaleryd H, Vlachos J (2002) Markets for risk and openness to trade: how are they related? Journal of International Economics 57 (2): 369-395. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0022-1996(01)00153-2
Vazakidis A, Adamopoulos A (2009) Financial development and economic growth: An empirical analysis for Greece. American Journal of Applied Sciences 6(7): 1410–1417. https://doi.org/10.3844/ajassp.2009.1410.1417
Wahyudi S, Nofendi D, Robiyanto R, Hersugondo H (2018) Factors affecting return on deposit (ROD) of sharia banks in Indonesia. Business: Theory and Practice 19: 166–176. https://doi.org/10.3846/btp.2018.17
Wang YS, Chueh YL (2013) Dynamic transmission effects between the interest rate, the US dollar, and gold and crude oil prices. Economic Modelling 30: 792–798. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econmod.2012.09.052
Wanyama DW (2017) Effect of stock market development on the growth of corporate bond market in Kenya. International Journal of Finance (IJF) 2 (2).
World Bank Indicators (2018) http://www.worldbank.org/?CID=ECR_GA_worldbank_EN_EXTP_AM2018&gclid=EAIaIQobChMIsJv2_6GL3gIVCK6WCh0HfgGVEAAYASAAEgIHGvD_BwE
Yartey CA (2007) Well-developed financial intermediary sector promotes stock market development: Evidence from Africa. Journal of Emerging Market Finance 6(3): 269–289. https://doi.org/10.1177/097265270700600303